There are growing fears that war could break out between Iran and the US and Israel early in the new year, following reports that Iran may be planning to "commemorate" the assassination last year -- on January 3rd -- of its top general Qassem Soleimani.
Soleimani was famously assassinated by an American drone strike, ordered by President Trump, near Baghdad’s international airport, dying alongside his comrade Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
There is a widespread belief that the attack was carried out mainly to serve Israel's interests, as Trump is the most pro-Israel president ever. Soleimani had played a key role in providing military support for President Assad of Syria and the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, both stern enemies of the Jewish ethnostate. Iran is also deeply incensed by the recent killing of its top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November, which it blames on the Israeli secret service Mossad.
There is a widespread belief that the attack was carried out mainly to serve Israel's interests, as Trump is the most pro-Israel president ever. Soleimani had played a key role in providing military support for President Assad of Syria and the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, both stern enemies of the Jewish ethnostate. Iran is also deeply incensed by the recent killing of its top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November, which it blames on the Israeli secret service Mossad.
Both the US and Israel are taking the threat of some kind of Iranian attack on January 3rd seriously and are deploying their forces to respond, a situation that could easily lead to an escalation and an outbreak of war.
There are reports that Israel has already sent a submarine to the Persian Gulf in order to retaliate against any Iranian strike by sinking Iranian shipping. This has also been accompanied by a US build up:
TEL AVIV — An Israeli submarine has embarked for the Persian Gulf in possible preparation for any Iranian retaliation over the November assassination of a senior Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Israeli media reported.The above-water, fully visible Israeli deployment into the Suez Canal and then the Red Sea was a rare move that was reportedly carried out with the acquiescence of Egyptian authorities and was seen as a clear warning to Iran that Israel was preparing for battle as hostilities continue to rise.The deployment, first reported late Monday by Israeli television channel Kan 11, coincided with the sighting in the Persian Gulf of the submarine USS Georgia, which is armed with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. It is the first time in eight years that an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine was publicly reported to be in the strategic waterway between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran...“Nothing is coincidental,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, in Tel Aviv, referring to the recent Israeli, U.S. and Saudi reports of increased military preparations close to Iran. “This is all trying to signal Iran a message: not to respond to the killing of Fakhrizadeh.”
Iran has already declared that it considers Israel sending submarine to the Gulf a direct "act of aggression."
As reported by the Tehran Times:
If an Israeli submarine arrives in the [Persian] Gulf, Iran will consider that an act of aggression and “in this case, we will have the right to take revenge,” Abolfazl Amouei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Aljazeera on Saturday night, just a few days after Israeli and American news media reported that an Israeli submarine has openly crossed the Suez Canal en route to Iran.
Amouei directly addresses the Israelis, saying that he is sending a clear message to them that they must be cautious and if the Israeli submarine arrives in the Persian Gulf, “it would be an amazing target for us.”
In what appeared to be a warning to Iran’s neighbors, the Iranian lawmaker underlined that bringing the Israelis near Iran might create problems for neighboring countries.
Some analysts believe that a conflict with Iran would serve the domestic political interests of both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
If Trump is considering radical action to overturn what he resolutely claims was a "rigged" Presidential election, then a war with Iran could be a perfect cover for some kind of imposition of martial law. If he isn't planning that then leaving a "nice mess" in the Middle East could be the perfect "going away present" for his successor Joe Biden.
Meanwhile in Israel, Netanyahu's position is hanging by a thread and he faces a difficult election in March next year possibly followed by more corruption chareges. A war with Iran could lead to Israeli voters rallying round someone they see as a military strongman and a "safe pair of hands."
The question however is will the Iranians strike.
They have proved to be cautious operators, gradually building up their power, but the deaths of Soleimani and their top nuclear scientist are major blows to their prestige. By doing something they have a lot to lose, but by doing nothing they also have a lot to lose.
Their most astute response would be to wait for Biden to become President and then hit Israel hard in the hope that the US will be too weak or hesitant to respond. If they launch a revenge attack on Israel while Trump is in office, they are almost certain to face direct US retaliation.
They have proved to be cautious operators, gradually building up their power, but the deaths of Soleimani and their top nuclear scientist are major blows to their prestige. By doing something they have a lot to lose, but by doing nothing they also have a lot to lose.
Their most astute response would be to wait for Biden to become President and then hit Israel hard in the hope that the US will be too weak or hesitant to respond. If they launch a revenge attack on Israel while Trump is in office, they are almost certain to face direct US retaliation.
