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The use of polls in order to demoralise the voters of an opposing party is a well-known technique of the Left. 

It was used extensively against Brexit in the UK and against Candidate Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election. Luckily it failed in both cases and Brexit and Trump won. 

But for those who might have forgotten about that take a look at this: 

And this:

The polls could safely predict an enormous lead for someone as unpopular as Hillary Clinton when the election was months and weeks away, but as election day neared they had to reflect things not exactly accurately but at least more accurately in order not to have egg all over their face on election day.

Now something similar is being seen with the November mid-term elections, where many of the polls have been predicting a "Blue Wave" for months. 

But, just as in 2016, the polls which showed Trump losing have failed to do their job of pushing down support for him

Instead, voting sentiment is starting to force the polls to go the other way, as voting day nears, and to start reflecting  reality, again not exactly accurately but at least more accurately

As this infographic shows, the supposed Democratic lead in Congressional seats is suddenly and miraculously shrinking. On the 3rd of October the Real Clear Politics average of all the main polls had:

DEMOCRATS 206 seats leaning/likely
GOP 189 seats leaning/likely
Toss ups 40

Now it is:

DEMOCRATS 205 seats leaning/likely
GOP 201 seats leaning/likely
Toss ups 29

Eleven seats have thus moved from "Toss Up" to "GOP leaning/likely" and one seat from "Dems  leaning/likely" to "Toss Up." 

Expect this trend to intensify as election day nears, because the polls can't afford to be completely off the result, as they were with Brexit and as they almost were with Trump. Their credibility is already shot to shit as it is.

1 comment

ChanChanRight said...

I was expecting this to happen months ago...how long can they continue to fool people?

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