ROCKY ROAD TO CATALAN INDEPENDENCE: LEADER PUIGDEMOT ARRESTED

All great independence struggles require their leaders to be arrested or otherwise martyred, so the recent arrest of exiled Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont may not be such a big victory for the Spanish government as many think. 

As reported by the Wall Street Journal:

In a dramatic end to a sobering week for Catalonia’s pro-independence forces, former Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont was detained on Sunday by German police who were acting on an international arrest warrant issued by a Spanish judge. The judge wants to force Mr. Puigdemont to return to Spain from his self-imposed exile to stand trial on charges of rebellion against the state for his push to see Catalonia secede. Five other pro-independence leaders who remained in Spain were sent to jail on Friday on rebellion charges, joining other separatists who are also awaiting trial...

He was arrested in Germany on Sunday while driving back to Belgium from a conference he had been attending in Finland. The Spanish National Police force said it coordinated with Spain’s National Intelligence Center to help German police locate Mr. Puigdemont. Separatists say the judicial investigations and arrest warrants are politically motivated and an attempt to weaken their movement rather than uphold Spanish law.

Puigdemont's mistake was staying within the EU, which is of course an increasingly totalitarian collection of states under the control of Germany. In fact it was only a matter of time before this happened. 

The big question is how will this effect the struggle for Catalonia's independence from Spain? Will Puigdemont's imprisonment create a "martyrdom effect" or not? 

The Catalan population can be divided into three groups, namely a hard core of Independence supporters who will never change their views (this group is North of 30%); a group of people who want to stay with Spain (this group is South of 30%); and around 30% of floating voters, who split both ways. 

Back in October 2017, more than 2 million of Catalonia's 5 million voters voted for Independence in a referendum that was not recognised by the Spanish government. 

Right now the third group -- the floating voters -- is a bit sick and tired of the push for independence, but the first group is sticking to its guns and isn't going anywhere. This group is likely to be angered and thus energised by any state repression of Catalan independence leaders that they perceive as unjust. Getting unwittingly arrested may thus be the smartest thing that Puigdemont has done. 

Another key factor will be the general health of the Spanish economy. Right now things aren't too bad, with a reasonably competent right-of-centre government keeping things on track. But if or when Spain enters a period of economic downturn, then it is highly likely that the pro-Independence movement will flare up again.