MAY DEAL CRUSHED, PM TO FACE NO CONFIDENCE VOTE TOMORROW - NO DEAL INCREASINGLY LIKELY
Britain is still no nearer to understanding its post-Brexit future after Parliament voted down Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal by 432 to 202. The deal was the culmination of two years of negotiations with the European Union.
Now the PM will face a vote of "No Confidence" brought by the opposition Labour Party tomorrow. If she loses she will have to resign, probably leading to a General Election. However, she is generally expected to win because those members of her own Party who voted against her deal and the members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who also voted against her deal will support her.
Meanwhile the EU is highly unlikely to offer the kind of substantial changes that could persuade Conservative rebels and DUP members to change their minds and support the deal in a 2nd Parliamentary vote.
This means that May's strategy now is to seek support not from her own rebels and the DUP, but instead from the opposition Labour Party and the SNP.
This means that May's strategy now is to seek support not from her own rebels and the DUP, but instead from the opposition Labour Party and the SNP.
This already looks like a failed strategy, as the cost of giving in to Labour and SNP demands would alienate even more of her own Party and deliver the worst possible Brexit. Officially Labour believes in a "Norway-style" deal, by which the UK would remain in the EU Customs Union and Single Market, allowing free movement of people, while technically being a non-member of the EU and therefore unable to have any say in EU rules.
This would essentially make the UK a permanent vassal state.
This would essentially make the UK a permanent vassal state.
Labour claims to support this absurd policy, mainly as a means to maintain unity in its own deeply divided ranks and to troll the government.
Some Labour MPs sincerely support Brexit, while many want to reverse it by pushing for a Second Referendum. The ones who support Brexit tend to be the most extreme Left wingers, making it difficult for the government to win their support, while the more moderate Labour MPs are the most pro-Europe, also making it difficult for the government to win their support.
Some Labour MPs sincerely support Brexit, while many want to reverse it by pushing for a Second Referendum. The ones who support Brexit tend to be the most extreme Left wingers, making it difficult for the government to win their support, while the more moderate Labour MPs are the most pro-Europe, also making it difficult for the government to win their support.
Because of these factors, the Conservative government's "Plan B" strategy of reaching across to the opposition parties is doomed from the start.
This means that a No Deal Brexit is the most likely option.
There are only two possibilities that would stop that -- a rebellion by die-hard Bremainer Conservative Party MPs that would destroy their careers and force a general election, which could go either way, or the EU making substantial concessions.
Neither of these are impossible but neither are they likely, so the realistic conclusion must be that Britain is heading for a "No Deal" Brexit under a Prime Minister who, in 2016, supported staying in the EU.
This means that a No Deal Brexit is the most likely option.
There are only two possibilities that would stop that -- a rebellion by die-hard Bremainer Conservative Party MPs that would destroy their careers and force a general election, which could go either way, or the EU making substantial concessions.
Neither of these are impossible but neither are they likely, so the realistic conclusion must be that Britain is heading for a "No Deal" Brexit under a Prime Minister who, in 2016, supported staying in the EU.
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