FINAL POLLS FOR ISRAELI GENERAL ELECTION SHOW A TIGHT RACE - END OF THE ROAD FOR BIBI?

With Israel holding a general election on Tuesday (April 9th), the last opinion poll paints an interesting picture, one that could see Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu finally losing power. 

The poll by Channel 13 puts Netanyahu's nationalist Likud Party and its more centrist right-wing rival, Kahol Lavan, neck-and-neck on 28 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset. 

The full results of the poll are as follows (red for governing coalition parties):

Kahol Lavan (centre right)   28 seats

Likud (nationalist)   28

Labor (left)   11

Union of Right-wing Parties   7

Hadash-Ta'al (Israeli Arabs)   6

Zehut (libertarian Zionist)   6

New Right (right wing conservative)   6

UTJ (ultra orthodox)   6

Shas (Sephardic and Mishnah Jews)   5

Meretz (social democrat) 5 

Yisrael Beiteinu (Russian Jews, right-wing) 4

Balad-UAL (Israeli Arabs)  4

Kulanu (Nationalist liberals)   4

The problem for Netanyahu is that if Kahol Lavan gets more seats than Likud -- in other polls Kahol Lavan has been leading -- then the President of Israel will have to give Benny Gantz the leader of Kahol Lavan the first chance at forming a new government.

If that failed then it would be Netanyahu's turn. With present coalition partners New Right (6), UTJ (6), Shas (5), and Kulanu (4), Netanyahu would have 49 seats, 12 short of the 61 required to rule. This would require him to gain support from other parties for a majority. 

Another possibility would be a deal with Kahol Lavan, but this will be difficult if Kahol Lavan wins more seats, as then Benny Gantz would want to be Prime Minister.

In Tuesday's election, expect an unclear result followed by plenty of wheeling and dealing before a new government emerges -- one that may or may not have Bibi as its head.

Become a Patron!