DOWNING OF RUSSIAN PLANE LIKELY TO BOOST SYRIA'S AIR DEFENCE

The recent downing of a Russian plane over Syria during an attack by Israeli jets on Syrian territory is not going to lead to World War III, but it is going to have serious repercussions. 

As the Ilyushin-20 surveillance plane flew near the Syrian coastline, it was used as "cover" by Israeli jets attacking targets in Syria. The large, relatively slow, propeller-driven aircraft was then accidentally shot down by Syrian air defences, resulting in the deaths of 15 Russian aircrew.

While everybody is trying to blame someone else, the fact is that this is Israel's fault. The Russians have been invited into Syria by the legitimate Syrian government in an attempt to resolve the Syrian Civil War, whereas Israel has not been. Instead they have been regularly bombing Syria, with an estimated 200 air attacks in the last 18 months. 

The Israeli justification for these attacks is that Iranian forces assisting the Syrian government are seeking to send aid to Hezbollah forces in the Lebanon. 

Really, is that the best they can do? There is ample evidence that Israel does the same sort of thing, only worse, by aiding groups that are actively involved in the Syrian civil war. Last June, for example, the Wall Street Journal reported:

"The Israeli army is in regular communication with rebel groups and its assistance includes undisclosed payments to commanders that help pay salaries of fighters and buy ammunition and weapons, according to interviews with about half a dozen Syrian fighters. Israel has established a military unit that oversees the support in Syria—a country that it has been in a state of war with for decades—and set aside a specific budget for the aid, said one person familiar with the Israeli operation."

So, if Iranian forces aiding Hezbollah, which only attacks Israel in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon, can be used as an excuse for bombing Syria, then Syria has plenty of justification for bombing the hell out of Israel. 

The reason that Syria doesn't do this is because (a) Israel has a powerful military and would escalate, possibly dragging in America, (b) Syria is less focused on protecting its national pride and more focused on winning the civil war on the ground in order to reunify the country, and (c) Russia advises against escalation with Israel and instead favours only defensive action against Israel.

Ilyushin-20

So, what is Russia going to do? 

It is highly likely that Russia will boost Syrian air defences. 

The Russian plane was shot down by S-200 missiles supplied to the Syrians by the Russians. As the name suggests, the S-200 has a maximum range of 200 kilometers, reducing the response time to Israeli attacks and leading to confusing incidents like this one.

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in order to maintain a good relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, agreed not to supply Syria with the longer range, more effective S-300 air defence missiles .

In May this year, Reuters reported:

Russia is not in talks with the Syrian government about supplying advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles and does not think they are needed, the Izvestia daily cited a top Kremlin aide as saying on Friday, in an apparent U-turn by Moscow.

The comments, by Vladimir Kozhin, an aide to President Vladimir Putin who oversees Russian military assistance to other countries, follow a visit to Moscow by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week, who has been lobbying Putin hard not to transfer the missiles.

Russia last month hinted it would supply the weapons to President Bashar al-Assad, over Israeli objections, after Western military strikes on Syria. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the strikes had removed any moral obligation Russia had to withhold the missiles and Russia’s Kommersant daily cited unnamed military sources as saying deliveries might begin imminently.

With 15 Russian aircrew dead because of Israel's gung-ho attitude towards Syria, now would be a good time to instill some much needed respect and caution among the Israeli air force. The easiest way to do this would be to not only supply the latest S-300 missiles and plenty of them, but also the Russian personnel necessary to make them work. 

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