Thanks to the turbulence being caused by the Brexit negotiations, UK politics are particularly unstable at the moment.
This could easily lead to the collapse of Prime Minister Theresa May's shambolic government, and we might even see a general election being announced within weeks or even days. After that, who knows what will happen.
But one thing is certain, it won't be a joyride for those Conservative MPs who have opposed Brexit or have favoured soft Brexit. One reason for this is that UKIP is now in a strong position to be a "spoiler party."
The extremely undemocratic UK electoral system only allows smaller parties to be represented if their support is concentrated in part of the country. This means that a smaller party can only make an impact by becoming a spoiler party.
UKIP is a classic example. With support spread across the nation, which sometimes topped 15% or even 20%, the party had no chance of getting MPs elected. But their main power was always their ability to take votes away from the two main parties.
UKIP is a classic example. With support spread across the nation, which sometimes topped 15% or even 20%, the party had no chance of getting MPs elected. But their main power was always their ability to take votes away from the two main parties.
In fact it was this threat that persuaded Tory leader David Cameron to agree to the "in-or-out" referendum on EU membership that led to Brexit in 2016.
Now, according to a new poll, UKIP is in a similar position -- able to threaten the anti-Brexit Tories in any coming election. The poll by Opinium Research showed the Tories dropping 5 points to 36%, while UKIP is up 2 points at 8%.
With a lot of constituency races guaranteed to be extremely tight, this means UKIP can basically pick and choose which Conservative MPs to run against and then knock several thousand votes off their majorities, leading to many of them losing their seats in Parliament. By threatening to apply this strategy against Tory Bremainers and Soft Brexiters, UKIP can have a big impact on the Tory Party right now.
In a recent tweet UKIP leader Gerard Batten declared that this is now his party's strategy:
In a recent tweet UKIP leader Gerard Batten declared that this is now his party's strategy:
This means that UKIP basically has the power to destroy the Bremainer/ Soft Brexit wing of the Conservative Party in any general election, which is great for "concentrating minds" right now.
In turn this means that Hard Brexit Conservative MPs, who would not be opposed by UKIP, can push all the harder to oppose the latest, unsatisfactory Brexit deal against their Soft and anti-Brexit colleagues.
Right now, no-one in the Conservative Party wants an election, as the extreme-left Labour Party is getting a temporary boost from the Brexit chaos and is leading in the polls. But the people who fear an election the most are Bremainer Tories, as they would become politically extinct.
This means the boot is firmly on the foot of the Hard Brexit Tories. Let's hope they use it to get their way.
This means the boot is firmly on the foot of the Hard Brexit Tories. Let's hope they use it to get their way.
