BATTLE OF RAQQAH ENDS: ISIS FIGHTERS TO BE BUSSED OUT

US-trained police who will try to restore order to the ruins of Raqqah.

The Battle of Raqqah, which started back in May, has finally ended after nearly five months of street fighting, with an agreement between the two sides, namely ISIS and the US-trained Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

The agreement will see the remaining ISIS forces and their families bussed out of Raqqah to ISIS-held territory further East, a relatively common procedure in the Syrian Civil War. The SDF has now taken control of the former capital city of the fast-shrinking ISIS "Caliphate." Much of the city has been reduced to rubble by US bombing in the nearly five-month long struggle, in which hundreds and possibly thousands died.

The armistice comes at an interesting time, as Kurdish forces are increasingly feeling threatened by other groups fighting against ISIS, namely the increasingly powerful, Russian-backed Shiite coalition of Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, and the Syrian government, which is dominated by Shiite Alawites like President Assad. 

Tensions are especially high in neighbouring Iraq, where a large pocket of ISIS territory to the East of the Tigris River was recently eradicated by Shiite Iraqi forces. This enabled the Iraqis to move much closer to the largest Kurdish-held city of Kirkuk. This city, close to important oil fields, is contested by the Kurds and the Arabs, who believe it is Arab territory due to Arabs being the largest ethnic group --  even though the Arabs in Kirkuk are mainly Sunnis.

Oil reserves and Kurdish control.

A 2007 agreement to hold a plebiscite to decide the city's fate has still not been implemented. 

Kurds point to a past of Arabisation, with Kurds forcibly removed from the oil-rich city, and Arabs moved in, and with non-Arabs forced to take on Arab identities. Matters are further complicated by the oil resources at stake, with Exxon deeply involved in Kurdistan and its politics. 

This means that the Kurds are unlikely to agree to Arab demands without something in return. This situation is leading to growing tensions between Kurds and the Iraqi government, who are also backed up by other countries reluctant to see continued Kurdish independence, like Turkey and Iran.

If war breaks out between Iraq and the Kurds, the Kurds could find themselves thrown into an unlikely alliance with ISIS, which represents mainly Sunni Arabs. 

This would cause headaches for the Trump administration, which is now trying to take a harder-line position in the Middle East, but has few useful allies in the region beside the Kurds.

A Kurdish fighter admires the handiwork of the US air force.