BORIS'S BREXIT DEAL FACES A KNIFE-EDGE VOTE AFTER DUP SAY THEY CAN'T SUPPORT IT

Boris currently shitting bricks while putting on a brave face.

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal with the EU is sitting on a knife edge after the Democratic Unionist Party said they could not support it.

The deal, which Johnson and his team hammered out with the EU in the last few days, now has to be voted on by the UK and EU parliaments. The EU vote should be a formality as the EU Parliament is essentially a rubber stamp chamber, but the one in the Westminster Parliament -- to be held this Saturday -- looks like going to the wire.

Here is the state of the parties at present:

Conservative 288

Labour 245

Independent 35

Scottish National Party 35

Liberal Democrat 19

Democratic Unionist Party 10

Sinn Féin 7

The Independent Group for Change 5

Plaid Cymru 4

Green Party 1

Speaker 1

Total number of seats 650

The 7 Sinn Féin MPs refuse to sit in the UK parliament, so there are effectively 643 MPs, meaning that the deal will need 322 votes to pass. However, this number could be lower if there are abstentions. For example, if the 10 DUP MPs decide to abstain rather than vote against the bill, Johnson would then need 317 votes. 

Assuming the 288 Conservatives all vote for the deal, this leaves Johnson with a shortfall of 29. 

Johnson should be able to pick up a few votes from the Independents, as most of them are former Tories. It is expected that around 15 will vote for the deal. This leaves Johnson short by 14 votes, meaning that he will require further abstentions or votes from opposition parties. 

While SNP and Lib Dem MPs are extremely unlikely to side with Boris, around 40 Labour MPs and other Independents from heavily Brexit-supporting constituencies are said to be considering voting for the deal. 

Pushing them in this direction are the words of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who said there would be "no prorogation" if the deal was voted down, effectively meaning that the UK will crash out if Johnson's deal fails.

So, it is extremely tight, but, on balance, things are marginally leaning in favour of the deal.

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